Mars Now phase II


Mars Now phase II

About phase II


Phase II is an expanded version of the Mars Now plan, both adding new content that either could not be fit within the 2013 Google Science Fair project or was left out due to limited time. Additionally, various improvements and error corrections have also been done in phase II.



Abstract

All current manned Mars mission proposals are set sometime after 2018 or 2020.

The last time humans so much as left low Earth orbit was the last moon mission in 1972...

41 years ago.

Must we wait until 2020 to return to space?
Perhaps not.

I propose that it is possible to have humans on Mars in 2014 using the Mars Now plan.

This is possible only if existing rockets are used.

Existing rockets can be used only if the habitation module is lightweight.

In most current proposals the habitation module is one of the heaviest components, mostly because of the needed food and water. However, if local Mars resources are used for food and water then only provisions for the journey there need to be brought. Food and water for the surface stay and journey back can be acquired on Mars. Combined with the short trip allowed by ion engines with an Earth-Mars conjunction launch allows for a very minimal and lightweight habitation module. Thus existing rockets can be used and allow a 2014 launch.






Introduction
To space exploration.
Mankind has been looked up in awe and fascination of space since before the dawn of civilization. More recently, the possibility that we can reach the distant wonders of space – something our stargazing hunter gather ancestors only dreamed about, may become reality.
Since the Apollo missions no human being has so much as floated beyond low Earth orbit.
After the Apollo missions there have been several proposals to step foot on other worlds, in particular Mars. Some notable plans to get there include:
The first US President Bush’s Space Exploration Initiative (SEI), which resulted in the disasterly 90-day study by NASA. Which proposed using large amounts of orbital and lunar infrastructure as part of a very elaborate and expensive plan1.
Dr. Robert Zubrin’s Mars Direct plan. Dr. Zubrin proposed using existing technology to reduce cost and practically remove the need for any additional infrastructure, and to use in-situ Martian resources to make the fuel for the return trip in order to reduce the mass of the return vehicle2.

Neither of these plans came to fruition.

In 2010 US President Barack Obama cancelled plans for a manned mission to the Moon, and instead authorized a mission to an asteroid by 2025 and to Mars by the 2030s3.
In 2012, Mars One, a private project, was announced, aiming to establish a settlement on Mars in 20234.
Neither of these propose sending humans to Mars before 2020.

Mars Now could change that.

Much of the ideas proposed in Mars Now were inspired by Mars Direct.
In fact, although none of the ideas proposed in the Mars Now plan are really new and unique in their own right, the combination of ideas within Mars Now is unique.
Another inspiration in encouraging me to put this project together was the Discovery Channel docufiction Alien Planet about a hypothetical unmanned mission to an alien world 4 light years away in the far near-ish future5.






Proposal
Base plan.
First launch.
Three Delta IV Heavys liftoff and throw their payloads on a trans-Mars injection.
Every two years, including 2014, Earth and Mars reach the closest point to each other, allowing a 6 month flight without any additional rockets (just the launch vehicle). Or a 3 month or shorter flight with ion engines.
The first payload consists of a manned 4-tonne crew capsule with the crew of 4 onboard, attached is an inflatable habitation module (HAB). Also onboard are 3 chemically fuelled ground vehicles – 2 small buggies and a 1-tonne Toyota Hilux-based light truck, a deployable 20 kWe solar array, a deployable fuel reactor, a deployable food bioreactor, provisions for the 3-month flight there, and a deployable manual crane . Attached underneath the capsule is a detachable truck with Argon gas tanks inside carrying 5 tonnes of Argon. The Argon is used as fuel for ion engines mounted on the capsule.
The second payload consists of 6 tonnes of liquid hydrogen and 5 tonnes of argon gas. This is fuel for the ARV on its return flight.
The third payload consists of an unmanned and unfuelled 8-tonne Ascent and Return Vehicle (ARV) consisting of a propulsion stage based off the SpaceX Falcon 9 launch vehicle, a descent stage based off the SpaceX Dragon capsule, and an inflatable HAB like the one on the first mission. The ARV is equipped with ion engines like the crew capsule, but they are not used for the trans-Mars flight.
Once the crew’s launch vehicle upper stage finishes the Trans-Mars Injection (TMI) burn the capsule and upper stage undock but remain attached via a tether. The assembly is spun to 1 rpm to generate Martian-level gravity.
En route the crew capsule ion engines allow a short 3-month transit. The ARV coasts to Mars in 6 months.
Once the ARV lands, its solar array deploys to power the ARV’s fuel reactor, which uses the hydrogen brought to generate methane/oxygen bipropellant for the return flight.
The crew and ARV stay on the Martian surface for two years until the next launch window, at which point they board the ARV and liftoff for Earth using a conjunction launch and ion engines for an equally fast 3 month return flight.
In addition to the base plan detailed above there are two possible variants to the Mars Now plan that could allow a crew launch in 2014.

1)       The crew is sent during one launch window, with the ARV and its fuel launched during the next launch window – the crew returning within the same window.
2)       Another alternative is that the crew launches during one window, and then more powerful rockets available in 2016 are used to launch the ARV and its fuel in a single launch during the next launch window.






Analysis

Launch and return vehicles.

Table 1.0 : List of existing launch vehicles
Launch vehicle           Payload to Mars          Price in USD          Available by
Falcon 9                    7 tonnes7                    54 million7              Now7
Falcon Heavy            12 tonnes8                  125 million8            Late 20158
Ariane 5 ECA            10.5 tonnes9                220 million11          Now9
Delta IV Heavy           13 tonnes10                300 million11          Now10
If a minimal number of launches are desired, a minimal price also desired, and a launch date later than 2016 is acceptable, then the ideal vehicle would be the Falcon Heavy with its to-Mars payload of 12 t and a price of only 125 mil USD.
However, if a launch date sometime before 2016 is desired and a minimal number of launches also desired than what would be the ideal launch vehicle? The Ariane 5 ECA can carry 10.5 t to Mars while the Mars Now payloads each have a mass of about 11-12 t. The Delta IV on the other hand can carry 13 t to Mars but costs a significantly higher 300 mil USD.
If a longer crew trip time is acceptable or more power is available to the crew capsule, such as by using larger solar arrays, then the Ariane 5 ECA would be acceptable as the amount of fuel required for both the journey there and back would be reduced.
Another option is equipping the Falcon 9 with a larger and more powerful second stage and a third stage based off the existing second stage.
To conclude. The ideal launch vehicle depends mostly on whether a launch before or in/after 2016 is desired. If a launch before 2016 is desired than the Ariane 5 ECA would be used. If a launch in or after 2016 is acceptable than the Falcon Heavy would be ideal. That said, the Falcon Heavy could be used for a pre-2016 launch if it were made available by early-to-mid 2014. Additionally, if a more powerful second stage and a third stage could be developed for the Falcon 9 by or before 2014 then it could be used instead.
And finally, for any launches after 2016, if the Falcon Heavy’s second stage were optimized for Trans-Lunar and Trans-Mars injections then the Falcon Heavy may be capable of throwing on the order of 25 tonnes to the Moon and 20 tonnes to Mars.
To put it simply. It is very possible to launch a manned mission to Mars by 2014 using existing rockets.
As for the return vehicle... Mars has 38% of Earth's gravity, so any launch vehicle on Mars will have a greater payload due to the lower gravity. For example, The Falcon 9 will have an 18 tonne payload to Earth from Mars, and that is not counting the lower weight of the launch vehicle.
To keep size to a minimum the Falcon 9 is used as the base for the launch vehicle in this plan.
Due to the greater payload from Mars the launch vehicle's size and propellant capacity could be scaled down to 38% of its original, reducing its payload from Mars to the same as the unmodified vehicle from Earth. This would reduce the launch vehicle's mass by 38%.
If this were done to the Falcon 9 it would reduce the normally 33 tonne14 Falcon 9 to 12 tonnes, and leave the launch vehicle with a Mars-to-Earth payload of 7 tonnes. A launch vehicle with a 7-tonne to Earth payload is not needed, so the thrust and propellant capacity could be halved. Giving an end payload of 3.5 tonnes and an end unfuelled mass of 6 tonnes.

In-situ Martian water and food sources.

The Viking 2 lander showed images of frost covering the ground, and the Phoenix lander found ice mere inches beneath the surface24.
NASA's Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter photographed flows what NASA believes is possibly liquid water during the warm season on Mars25.
Findings from the Phoenix lander in 2008 indicate that Martian soil could support Earthly plant life26.
So, the Martian soil is capable of supporting Earthly life. And water seems to be actually quite common on Mars, at least as ice.
The permafrost could serve as a water supply by drilling down to the permafrost layer, lowering a heating element down and then pumping up the liquid water. The water would then be electrolyzed the resulting gaseous hydrogen and oxygen pumped out and recombined, resulting in 100% pure water.
Another method for getting water is to use the solar array that will be brought as an ‘air well’, an air well is essentially a flat surface thermally insulated from the ground that dew collects on around sunrise and sunset33.
Nutrients for consumption and food growing purposes could be extracted from Martian soil23 which contains all the needed elements for life (such as edible plant life) to grow. Additionally, the Water content of the Martian soil ranges from less than 2% by weight to more than 60%.
Food could be grown on the Martian surface in a sealed photobioreactor. A bioreactor is a device or system that supports a biologically active environment30. A photobioreactor simply is a bioreactor with a light source31.
Algae grows without soil naturally, is nutrient dense, contain a complete protien29, and contains almost all of the vitamins and nutrients humans need to survive. Combined, this makes Algae a desirable food choice for a Mars mission crew.

Super-fast transit.

Table 2.0 : Super-fast transit analysis final speed variables, source: Wolfram|Alpha6
Exhaust velocity  Final speed  Initial speed  Initial mass  Final mass
15 km/s               19 km/s        10 km/s        11 tonnes     6 tonnes
23 km/s               24 km/s        10 km/s        11 tonnes     6 tonnes
30 km/s               28 km/s        10 km/s        11 tonnes     6 tonnes
Table 2.1 : Super-fast transit analysis travel time variables, source: Wolfram|Alpha6
Final Speed   Travel time for a dist. of 1 au (avg. conjunction dist.)
19 km/s         91 days (0.3 yr)
24 km/s         72 days (0.2 yr)
28 km/s         60 days (0.16 yr)
Argon, how much is needed? And can it be found on Mars?
As shown in the above table, 5 tonnes of Argon will allow a low power-ion engine (15 km/s exhaust velocity) propelled craft to reach Mars in 3 months. With higher power ion engines; such as the 23 and 30 km/s exhaust velocity engines; a craft can reach Mars in a 2 months to 1 and half months. A higher power-ion engine would require larger and/or more efficient solar arrays.
Additionally, with higher power-ion engines less Argon is needed to reach the same final speed. This means Mars could be reached in 3 months but only use half the otherwise needed Argon..
Argon is found is Mars. In fact, Argon makes up about 1.6% of the Martian atmosphere. As such Argon could be extracted from the Martian atmosphere, thus reducing the mass needed to be brought to Mars. However, in the baseline Mars Now plan Argon is simply brought from Earth for simplicity.
That said, the Mars Now plan could be very easily adapted to include a device to extract Argon from the Martian atmosphere.

Radiation danger and solutions.

Table 3.0 : Radiation danger and solutions analysis, transit doses
Exposure time        Transit dose34              Avg. Martian surface dose35
90 days (0.3 yr)      10.8 rem (108 mSv)     3.6 rem (36 mSv)
180 days (0.6 yr)     21.6 rem (216 mSv)    7.2 rem (72 mSv)
365 (1.0 yr)             43.8 rem (438 mSv)     14.6 rem (146 mSv)
An acute radiation dose (all at once) of 10 rem (100 mSv) increases a person’s cancer risk by about 0.8%40, so a dose of 1 rem (10 mSv) rem would increase a person’s cancer risk by about 0.08%.
The total transit time of the Mars Now crew (to and from Mars) would be 180 days (90 there, 90 back). During that time the each crew member would individually be exposed to a cumulative radiation exposure of 21.6 rem (216 mSv), increasing their individual cancer risk by about 1.7%.
However, the figure of 21.6 rem for 180 days in space does not include solar flares. The dose received while within a minimally-shielded spacecraft can be as high as an acute 400 rem (4 Sv) dose, while 300 rem (3 Sv) is instantly lethal36.
This could possibly be solved, by making the inflatable habitation module from a nylon/kevlar blend, the kevlar for strength and the nylon because it is hydrocarbon based. Hydrogen is one of the best radiation shields known34, so the hydrocarbon-based nylon would provide much better radiation shielding than an equivalent thickness of aluminum.
Additionally, the habitation module could be covered in a palladium-gold foil. With it’s high density gold is a good shield against electromagnetic radiation39. Gold reflects both visible and infrared efficiently45; this is necessary to prevent the Sun heating the inside of the habitation module to uninhabitable temperatures. Palladium has the ability to readily absorb hydrogen38 and its ions, protons count chemically as hydrogen ions37. As such palladium can also absorb protons, thus absorbing and slowing down most of the proton radiation during solar flares.
The nylon/kevlar habitation module with a palladium-gold foil covering combined would provide very good radiation shielding even during solar flares. When combined with the fact that deep space radiation is super dangerous eliminates the radiation problem.

Martian surface radiation.

Considering that the total rem dose is 14.6 rem (146 mSv) each individual crew member’s cancer risk would be increased by 1.2%, a minuscule increase.

Martian surface vehicles.

There are four possible vehicles that are durable enough to function in the extreme Martian environment.
They are the Toyota Hilux, Toyota Tacoma, Hummer H1 and Bowler Wildcat.
Hummer H1 production was cancelled in 200616, and preferably the vehicle used on Mars would be an in-production vehicle, thus providing already-existing infrastructure for maintenance and repair of the vehicle. This could prove invaluable if the vehicle were to break down. As existing infrastructure would mean an active knowledge base on how to maintain and repair the vehicle.
The Bowler Wildcat is designed almost specifically for long distance harsh condition rally-racing. This would mean that the Wildcat would be durable enough to handle the Martian environment. However, the Wildcat is designed for racing, not utility, but the crew will require a utility vehicle. This would make the Bowler Wildcat a poor choice for a long-duration manned Mars mission.
That leaves the Toyota Hilux and Tacoma.
The Hilux already has a longstanding reputation for being extremely reliable and durable18. While the Tacoma was designed more as a personal vehicle favoring comfort over ruggedness19.
The latest Hilux (2005), with some modifications, has been used in both the Arctic and Antarctica20.
The unmodified Hilux weighs 3 tonnes15. While a Hilux modified for use in Antarctica weighs about 2 tonnes21. If the body was made from aluminum-lithium like spacecraft then the weight could be feasibly reduced to 1 tonne, which is the weight assumed in this mission proposal.
In addition to the modifications made for Antarctica another major modification would be needed. Make the engine work on Mars.
Mars has no oxidizer in its atmosphere. This can be solved by simply bringing an oxygen supply. However, the main problem is not the lack of oxygen, but the lack of nitrogen.
On Earth nitrogen in the air regulates the combustion process by essentially partially extinguishing the combustion reaction. This could be solved by compressing Martian air, which is 95% carbon dioxide (CO2) and using that to much the same effect as the nitrogen in Earth’s atmosphere.
Another more ‘exotic’ idea would be to recycle the CO2 rich exhaust and pump it back into the engine to serve the same purpose.
Another advantage of this second idea is that this could also be applied to Earth vehicles, allowing a vehicle running on methane/oxygen to reuse all of its exhaust, which could then be used to make more fuel while not in use in much the same way fuel would be made on the Mars mission. This idea would also eliminate any unburned fuel, as it is simply recycled with the exhaust back into the engine.
One of the above two ideas could be combined with simply using higher temperature materials than conventionally along with direct regenerative cooling of the hottest parts of the engine using the cryogenic fuel and oxidizer.

Martian surface suit.

A simple 3 cm wide strip of elastic cloth is wrapped around the user; the less an area of skin stretches during movements the tighter the cloth covering that section is wrapped. This can be further improved if the cloth strip is wrapped following 'lines of non extension'.
Lines of non extension are sections of skin that do not stretch much during movements41, so if elastic cloth is stretched very tight over these sections it will hold the surrounding looser cloth tight. These lines of non extension tend to follow musculature.
Lines of non extension have been researched at MIT by Professor Dava Newman. In Professor Newman's design elastic bands would be stretched along the lines of non extension, elastic cloth such as spandex would be stretched between the bands41.
The only problem with this design is the fragile nature of the bands; this is unavoidable as the bands are very small.
But the problem isn’t so much preventing the bands from breaking as they almost certainly will over the course of the 2 year mission. The problem is repairing the bands, as they must be restrung without disturbing unbroken bands, otherwise the entire suit would need to be restrung just because one band broke.
Using a strip of cloth wrapped around the wearer instead of small bands makes the suit easier to repair, simply attach a new piece of elastic cloth over and following the torn one.

Fuel and oxygen production.

Hydrogen boils off easily when cooled to a liquid, more easily than most cryogenic liquids42.
Methane also has a greater energy density than liquid hydrogen46,42.
The use of Methane as fuel was suggested by Dr. Robert Zubrin in his Mars Direct plan. In his proposal he used a combined Sabatier/Reverse water-gas shift reactor to convert Martian CO2 and a relatively small amount of hydrogen brought from Earth into methane/oxygen bipropellant, with a ratio of hydrogen to methane/oxygen of 1:1822.
In the Mars Direct plan 6 tonnes of hydrogen are brought from Earth, this amount results in about 110 tonnes of methane/oxygen bipropellant. Most of this is used for the Earth Return Vehicle (ERV) in the Mars Direct plan, with the rest being used for surface vehicles44.
In the Mars Now plan however small portable fuel reactors are used to make fuel for the surface vehicles. Because of this only 4.5 tonnes of hydrogen are needed in the Mars Now plan. This results in 81 tonnes of methane/oxygen bipropellant, the amount needed to fuel the Ascent and Return Vehicle (ARV) of the Mars Now plan.






Conclusion
The analysis validates the Mars Now plan, so it is just a matter of time and finding interested people willing to fund such a mission.

To describe the Mars Now plan in a nutshell: Mars Now is a bare-bones mission that could see humans on Mars as soon as next year (2014).

So now the question regarding a manned mission to the Red World is no longer "Can we?" but "Will we?”
I think the answer lies in whether or not there are enough people interested to get such a mission off the ground... Literally.
The Mars Now plan opens the door to a mission in the very, very near future.
The launch vehicles for there and back already exist.
The resources needed to sustain human life are already found on Mars.
Ion engines can allow a quick trip and thus a small habitation module. In turn allowing use of existing launch vehicles.
But does the interest exist?

I think so. But those with interest need to actually know about a plan to make it happen.
This is the reason why I submitted this plan to the Google Science Fair and created the Mars Now blog.
Thank you.








References and Acknowledgements


References

a small raised number like this 0, after a statement or other information indicates the reference number here
1: Wikipedia article on the Space Exploration Initiative
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Exploration_Initiative
2: Wikipedia article on Mars Direct
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mars_Direct
3: Space.com article on President Obama's change of NASA's direction
http://www.space.com/9233-nasa-transition-congress-oks-direction.html
5: Wikipedia article on the docufiction Alien Planet
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alien_Planet
6: Wolfram|Alpha main page
http://www.wolframalpha.com/
7: Wikipedia article on the SpaceX Falcon 9
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9
8: Wikipedia article on the SpaceX Falcon Heavy
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_Heavy
9: Wikipedia article on the ESA Ariane 5
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ariane_5
10: Wikipedia article on the ULA Delta IV
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delta_IV
11: Wikipedia article on Comparison of orbital launch systems
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_orbital_launch_systems
12: Wikipedia article on the SpaceX Dragon spacecraft
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dragon_(spacecraft)
13: Wikipedia article on the SpaceX Falcon 5
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_5
14: Components subsection of the Space Launch Report article on the SpaceX Falcon launch vehicles
http://www.spacelaunchreport.com/falcon9.html#components
16: Wikipedia article on the Hummer H1
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hummer_H1
17: Wikipedia article on the Bowler Wildcat
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bowler_Wildcat
18: Reputation subsection of the Wikipedia article on the Toyota Hilux
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_Hilux#Reputation
19: Wikipedia article on the Toyota Tacoma
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_Tacoma
20: Wikipedia article on the company Arctic Trucks
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_Trucks
21: Arctic Trucks page for a modification model
http://www.arctictrucks.com/pages/4699
22: Wikipedia article on the Sabatier reaction
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sabatier_reaction
23: Wikipedia article on Martian soil
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martian_soil
24: Wikipedia article on Water on Mars
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_on_Mars
25: Wikipedia article on Seasonal flows on warm Martian slopes
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seasonal_flows_on_warm_Martian_slopes
26: Article on habitability of Martian soil to lifeforms, titled: Phoenix: Mars Soil Can Support Life
http://www.universetoday.com/15279/phoenix-mars-soil-can-support-life/
27: Article on Skymania.com about lichen surviving the Martian environment
http://www.skymania.com/wp/2012/04/lichen-survives-harsh-martian-setting.html/
28: Wikipedia article on Algaculture (essentially farming algae)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Algaculture
29: Wikipedia article on Edible seaweed
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edible_seaweed
30: Wikipedia article on Bioreactors
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bioreactor
31: Wikipedia article on Photobioreactors
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photobioreactor
32: Wikipedia article on Hall effect thrusters
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hall_effect_thruster
33: Wikipedia article on Air wells
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_well_(condenser)
34: Wikipedia article on Health threat from cosmic rays
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_threat_from_cosmic_rays
35: NASA article on Martian surface radiation
http://mepag.nasa.gov/science/10_surface_radiation/index.html
36: NASA article, “Sickening Solar Flares”
37: Wikipedia article on Hydrogen
38: Wikipedia article on Palladium
39: Wikipedia article on Radiation protection
40: Wikipedia article on Radiation hormesis
41: Extra-Vehicular Activity Research at MIT's Man Vehicle Lab
42: Wikipedia article on Hydrogen storage
43: Wikipedia article on Mars
44: Full Mars Direct Report PDF
45: MadSci Network article on why gold foil was on the lunar lander
46: Wikipedia article on Methane


Acknowledgements

I would like to thank my family, especially my dad for having such great patience and helping me when I had difficulties.
I would like to thank the creators, staff and editors of Wikipedia, without which I have no clue where I would have gotten the information.
I would like to thank the creators and programmers of the Wolfram|Alpha calculation engine, it has proven invaluable.
I would like to acknowledge Dr. Robert Zubrin, for both inspiring me with his Mars Direct plan and for the research he has done in the field of Mars exploration. The research he has done, whether accessed through a Wikipedia article, TV program or Google search has been of great help.

And I thank Google and the sponsors of the Science Fair for giving me and countless other kids the chance to get their ideas out to the world.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)